59% Chance of Collapse | Weeks of 27 - 10 Nov '24
Risk concerns this week: 13 year lies on impacts of LNG. 600k hackers target US. Security risks in paradise.
Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between October 27th October, and 10th November, 2024…
Environmental | 13 years ago, climate impacts from Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) usage were flagged but only now is the full scope of the danger becoming clear to the public. New findings reveal that LNG, once touted as a cleaner alternative to coal, releases more harmful emissions than coal. The extent of political and organisational green washing is a disturbing reminder of how industry influence can stall climate progress. Adding fuel to the fire, land carbon sinks—a natural line of defense—suddenly failed to absorb CO2 in 2023, hinting that the climate situation may be more dire than current models suggest.
Additionally, key ocean currents in the Atlantic are showing signs of extreme stress, with a substantial chance of collapse within the next few decades. If this system goes down, it could spell disaster for northern Europe’s climate and agricultural industry. Record-breaking ocean temperatures serve as yet another red flag, warning us that the climate crisis is advancing on multiple fronts. All this to say, the challenges are stacking up, and the time for action is slipping away.
Original coverage of this story was sourced by Bernard Hickey, a New Zealand journalist. Much of the sources we refer to come from his piece linked above.
Geopolitical | Sri Lanka’s Arugam Bay, a beloved hotspot for surfers and tourists, recently hit the radar with a U.S. Embassy alert about possible security threats—an unsettling reminder of the vulnerabilities in such remote, high-traffic destinations. While Sri Lankan authorities acted swiftly, deploying a sizeable police and Special Task Force presence, the response also underscores the inherent risks that arise in popular but sparsely patrolled areas. For travellers, it's a cautionary tale about the thin line between paradise and peril, and it’s not unique to Sri Lanka. Many under-policed island nations face similar security challenges, raising questions about the safety protocols in place as tourist seasons heat up.
Technological | 600,000: according to U.S. intelligence, that’s how many active hands on keyboards China has attempting to hack ISP’s in the US. We reported on this earlier in the week where a Wall Street Journal cyber reporter has found multiple hacker groups - tagged as Typhoons - currently infiltrating private organisations to get through to confidential, government intelligence. This was a core risk in our 13 - 27 Oct '24 update, but it appears that the evolution from ISPs to private companies is more prevalent. The focus is now on organisations that hold data required for evidence in legal cases or intelligence gathering purposes.
And, for the army of Chinese hackers, private businesses are easier game than governmental departments. Organisations need to be aware of the sheer scale of the operation state backed hackers are working with. Coupled to the advancement in technology, it’s a critical time to build a culture of cyber awareness.
Our thoughts
Forgive us for not reporting on the obvious, but as much as this week’s U.S. Election outcome is big news, it’s important we stick to our promise of covering risks you may have missed (and no one missed that one). Yes, be prepared for Trump’s tariff increases and what they may do to global trade, but focus on the lead up to the holiday season and cyber risk - which is 44 days away! Hackers use the shut-down period to release an onslaught of problems while most of the team are sipping Baileys and eating their third pudding. If you haven’t already, you should test your defences and response process now.
As someone who loves the adventure of working and travelling in remote areas as well as only just getting back from my elopement in Sri Lanka, it’s hard not to feel a bit of unease with these kinds of security alerts increasing. Despite Trump’s unofficial confirmation on the defeat of ISIS, Arugam Bay and places like it are often the ultimate draw for remote workers, but still come with security risks. As lesser travelled locations become more attractive for foreign businesses to open operations and send staff, we still have a level of terrorism risk.
Finally, the last few years of the threats from AI development has in some ways distracted us from the smouldering crisis of a warming planet. Disturbing recent findings should highlight the level of reputational and financial damage that can occur to businesses who ignore or hide their climate commitment. With the reports coming out of the EU and warnings from key scientists, we should expect a wave of protests and potentially some tougher regulations for certain industries.
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Category: Environmental
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In summary: Bernard Hickey’s sources paint a grim picture of the current state of climate change, highlighting a confluence of alarming trends that demand immediate attention. A groundbreaking study reveals that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is far more damaging to the climate than previously acknowledged, emitting 33% more greenhouse gases than coal over a 20-year period.
The culprit is methane, a potent greenhouse gas leaking throughout the LNG production and distribution chain. Disturbingly, this finding was first reported in 2011 but was suppressed by industry disinformation campaigns, emphasizing the insidious role of corporate interests in delaying climate action. Adding to this, global land sinks, responsible for absorbing about 50% of human-caused CO2 emissions, experienced a collapse in 2023, failing to absorb any net carbon dioxide. This failure could double the pace of warming and has not been factored into current climate models, raising serious concerns about the accuracy of existing projections.
Further compounding the issue is the increasing instability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A recent study, supported by 44 leading climate scientists, warns that the AMOC is dangerously close to collapse, potentially occurring between 2037 and 2064, with a 59% probability of collapse before 2050. This collapse would have devastating consequences, particularly for Nordic countries, leading to major cooling and jeopardizing agriculture throughout northwestern Europe.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by the unprecedented 12-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean, highlighting the alarming rate at which our oceans are warming. These converging crises underscore the grave threat posed by climate change and the urgent need for immediate and decisive action to mitigate its devastating impacts.
Sources:
Ironic and Tragic: Technological Fundamentalism and Our Fear of Limits | Resilience.org
Once we pass 1.5°C of global warming, there is no going back | New Scientist
Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing? | The Guardian
You should be concerned if…
You are associated with the Oil and Gas Industry: LNG’s true climate impact challenges the "bridge fuel" narrative, exposing a history of industry-led disinformation to suppress science and shape policy.
You are associated with Government and Policymakers: Findings on LNG, carbon sinks, and AMOC increase pressure on governments to enforce stricter fossil fuel regulations, invest in renewables, and prepare for climate impacts.
If you could be impacted by Environmental Groups and Activists: Escalating climate risks will drive activists to push harder for aggressive policies and legal actions to hold leaders and corporations accountable. If you partner or are associated with third or fourth party suppliers with poor climate impacts, you may be targetted.
You live or operate in a vulnerable community: Coastal areas and farming regions, especially in northern Europe, face severe risks from rising seas and disrupted weather. Immediate adaptation support is critical for these communities.
These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique threat landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.
Type of Risks
Economic
Beyond climate impacts, broader economic factors like inflation and recession can strain resources for climate initiatives, while supply chain disruptions—fuelled by trade imbalances and price shocks—affect access to essential resources for adaptation and relief efforts.
Environmental
Resource depletion (water, forests, soil) and various forms of pollution (air, water, soil) intensify climate risks, impacting human health and ecosystems.
Geopolitical
Trade wars and sanctions and shifting global alliances can disrupt international cooperation, hindering collaborative climate action and escalating tensions over resources.
Societal
Demographic shifts (ageing populations, urbanization) increase vulnerability in key areas, while public health crises like pandemics divert resources from climate action, amplifying global inequalities.
Technological
Technological obsolescence risks outdated infrastructure hampering climate solutions, while emerging tech disruptions like AI raise concerns over biases and unforeseen impacts on mitigation strategies.
What this means to you
Green washing
The term green washing has become more prevalent and investigated by media. With many climate targets promised by countries and large organisations like Apple and Honda, a bigger lens is on who is potentially green washing.
Natural disasters
The risk of natural disasters is increasing exponential. Whilst some organisations have planned for physical relocation efforts, virtual or hybrid long-term working, many haven’t tested if these will work.
Preventative actions
Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Transition to renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and invest in low-carbon technologies to minimize emissions. This move not only supports climate efforts, but it can be a positive part of your brand consumers will support.
Strengthen Climate Resilience: Conduct climate risk assessments, develop adaptation plans, and invest in resilient infrastructure to withstand extreme weather.
Collaborate for Climate Action: Advocate for clean energy policies and work with industry peers, NGOs, and governments on sustainable initiatives.
Promote Transparency: Be open about carbon footprint and climate risks, and counter climate misinformation to foster trust and awareness. It’s better to be honest with your impacts than conduct in green washing practices.
Invest in Innovation: Support R&D in climate mitigation and adaptation technologies, partnering with research institutions for advanced solutions.
Need support?
At Fixinc, we are passionate about helping people get through disasters. That’s why our team of Advisors bring you this resource free of charge. If you need help understanding these threats and building a plan against them, the same Advisors are here to help over a 30-minute online call. Once complete, if you like what was provided, you can choose to provide a donation or subscribe to Unreasonable Ventures to support this channel.