Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top emerging risks between November 3rd, and November 17th, 2025…
Review our report’s terminology here ↗
Our main risk this fortnight is…
1. Technological: Global Memory Chip Shortage
Samsung raised DDR5 memory chip prices by up to 60% between September and November 2024, with 32GB modules jumping from $149 to $239
AI data centre demand has triggered a “super-cycle” shortage, with memory makers redirecting production to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that’s 5x more profitable than standard chips
DRAM inventory has collapsed from 31 weeks to just 8 weeks of supply, triggering panic buying and long-term contracts extending into 2026-2027
China’s SMIC reports customers are delaying Q1 2026 orders due to memory availability uncertainty, while Xiaomi blames rising memory costs for increased smartphone prices
Analysts expect the shortage to persist well beyond typical chip cycles due to 2.5-year factory construction timelines and continued AI infrastructure investment
Sources
Samsung hikes memory chip prices by up to 60% as shortage worsens, sources say | Reuters | November 14, 2024
Memory Chip Shortage Sends Profits Higher For Samsung And Rivals | Finimize | October 2024
AI Chip Boom Triggers Global Memory Shortage, Lifting Prices for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron | TipRanks | October 2024
You should be concerned if…
You’re Managing IT Infrastructure or Cloud Operations: Data centre operators, cloud providers, and enterprise IT teams face higher costs and uncertain supply through at least mid-2026. If you were planning server refreshes, infrastructure upgrades, or cloud migrations, your budgets are now obsolete. Memory procurement that seemed routine six months ago has become a strategic supply chain challenge.
You’re in Electronics Manufacturing or Consumer Tech: Smartphone, PC, and consumer electronics manufacturers are absorbing 30-50% cost increases on a core component. Companies like Xiaomi are already passing costs to consumers. If you manufacture devices with memory components, from smartphones to IoT sensors, your margins are under immediate pressure and your product roadmaps may need revision.
You’re in Automotive, Industrial IoT, or Embedded Systems: Modern vehicles, industrial equipment, and connected devices rely on memory chips for everything from infotainment to safety systems. With suppliers prioritising AI customers and inventories at critically low levels, procurement timelines have extended and costs have jumped. If you depend on just-in-time semiconductor delivery, you’re exposed.
You Operate in APAC Markets: Companies in Oceania and ASEAN face particular vulnerability given the region’s concentration of electronics manufacturing and dependency on memory imports from South Korea and Taiwan. Samsung and SK Hynix control 70% of global DRAM production, and both are raising prices in lockstep while redirecting capacity to AI chips.
You’re Planning 2025-2026 Technology Investments: Any organisation budgeting for hardware purchases, device rollouts, or IT modernisation projects needs to revise financial models immediately. The 30-60% price increases aren’t temporary, analysts describe this as a multi-year “super-cycle” driven by structural supply constraints and sustained AI demand.
These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.
Preventative actions
Lock in Long-Term Supply Agreements Now
Don’t wait for prices to normalise, they won’t, at least not until late 2026. Secure long-term contracts with suppliers even if upfront costs are higher. The certainty of guaranteed supply and locked pricing will prove more valuable than gambling on a price drop that industry forecasts say isn’t coming.
Diversify Your Supply Chain Immediately
Relying on a single vendor or distributor in this environment is dangerous. Build relationships with secondary suppliers, regional distributors, and alternative manufacturers now. When primary suppliers allocate scarce inventory to larger customers, secondary relationships become your operational lifeline.
Revisit Technology Roadmaps and Deployment Timelines
If you planned large-scale server deployments, device rollouts, or IoT expansions, consider phasing implementations or exploring less memory-intensive architectures. Work with vendors to understand actual availability versus paper commitments. Adjust timelines to match realistic supply constraints rather than ideal procurement schedules.
Update Financial Models with Realistic Cost Assumptions
Budget 30-50% higher memory costs for 2025 CAPEX planning. Communicate this structural shift upward to CFOs and boards, this isn’t a temporary spike that finance teams can absorb or negotiate away. Model multiple scenarios including extended shortages and consider how memory constraints might affect broader strategic initiatives.
2. Environmental: Storm Claudia Compound Weather Event
Storm Claudia delivered over 100mm of rain in 24 hours across England and Wales (up to 150mm in south-east Wales), causing major flooding incidents and forcing 57+ property evacuations
South Wales Fire and Rescue declared a major incident in Monmouth after the River Monnow burst its banks, with emergency services conducting rescues and evacuations across multiple communities
The storm brought wind gusts up to 70mph and caused widespread transport disruption, closing major roads (A55, A5) and disrupting rail services across North Wales
Immediately following the flooding, Arctic air pushed temperatures down to forecast lows of -5°C to -7°C, with the UK Health Security Agency issuing cold weather warnings for Midlands and northern England (Nov 17-21)
The compound weather event, flooding followed immediately by freezing temperatures, created cascading business continuity challenges for logistics, retail, utilities, and infrastructure operators
Sources
Storm Claudia causes road closures and flooding disruption | Daily Post | November 16, 2024
Improving picture but further flooding impacts expected in England following Storm Claudia | UK Government | November 17, 2024
Storm Claudia brings intense rain to England and Wales | Met Office | November 14, 2024
You should be concerned if…
You Operate Logistics, Transportation, or Supply Chain Operations: Compound weather events don’t just cause single disruptions, they create cascading operational challenges. Road closures from flooding are followed immediately by ice, snow, and freezing conditions that slow operations further. Driver fatigue compounds, vehicle maintenance needs increase, and delivery schedules that were disrupted by flooding face additional delays from cold weather hazards.
You Manage Physical Assets or Infrastructure: Flooding followed by freezing temperatures creates unique infrastructure risks. Water damage to buildings, warehouses, or equipment is followed by burst pipe risks as temperatures plunge. Older buildings and infrastructure not designed for sustained freezing face compounded vulnerabilities. Heating costs spike precisely when flood damage may have affected utility systems.
You Run Retail, Hospitality, or Customer-Facing Operations: Footfall drops during extreme weather, whether flooding or freezing. If supply chains were strained by transport disruption during Storm Claudia, the cold snap extends those delays. Inventory buffers get tested, staff face commuting challenges, and customer service suffers when teams are stretched managing multiple concurrent weather impacts.
You’re in Agriculture, Construction, or Outdoor Operations: These sectors face direct operational shutdown risks during compound events. Fields already waterlogged from flooding become unusable when frozen. Construction sites can’t simply resume when rain stops if freezing temperatures follow. Equipment, materials, and workflows all face sequential disruptions that traditional single-threat planning doesn’t address.
You Operate in Regions with Increasingly Volatile Weather Patterns: While Storm Claudia hit the UK, the lesson is universal. Compound weather events, where multiple hazards occur in rapid succession, are becoming more common globally. Regions in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia experiencing more volatile transitions between weather systems need to rethink how they model weather risk.
Preventative actions
Model Compound Weather Scenarios in Business Continuity Plans
Stop planning for single-threat events. Model what happens when your region experiences flooding followed by freezing temperatures, or heatwaves followed by storms, or wildfires followed by heavy rain. These combinations are statistically more likely than isolated extreme events, and they create operational complexity that linear recovery plans don’t address.
Build Operational Redundancy and Flexibility
If you rely on a single warehouse, distribution route, or supplier location, you’re vulnerable when weather events stack. Establish backup distribution centres, alternative transport routes, and secondary supplier relationships. Remote work capabilities for office staff during extreme weather aren’t just pandemic lessons, they’re weather resilience tools.
Implement Proactive Communication Protocols
Don’t wait for the crisis to hit before communicating with teams and customers. When weather warnings are issued three days out, that’s your action window. Notify customers about potential delays, give employees clear guidance on safety protocols and remote work, and brief operational teams on contingency activation. Proactive communication builds trust and reduces crisis panic.
Invest in Real-Time Weather Monitoring and Decision Systems
Weather forecasting has improved dramatically, but organisations need systems that translate forecasts into operational decisions. Partner with meteorological services, implement IoT sensors for facility monitoring, and establish clear trigger points for activating contingency plans. The gap between forecast and response determines whether you’re reactive or prepared.
Quick snippet stories
Aviation Supply Chain Crisis Worsens: The global aviation industry faces an $11 billion crisis in 2025 as aircraft deliveries fall 30% below expectations due to parts shortages, engine production delays (particularly Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engines), and workforce shortages. Airlines are reducing flight schedules and seeing average aircraft age climb to a record 14.8 years, with a backlog of 17,000 unfulfilled orders creating long-term capacity constraints.
Supply Chain Issues Continue to Negatively Impact Airline Performance into 2025 | IATADelhi’s Pollution Crisis Forces Corporate Adaptation: Air quality in Delhi reached AQI 491, over 30 times WHO safe limits, forcing emergency work-from-home mandates with corporate offices operating at 50% on-site capacity. Companies including Coca-Cola and Nestlé have implemented hybrid work policies while incurring additional costs for air purifiers, masks, and health monitoring, demonstrating how environmental crises can force immediate operational changes in major economic hubs.
Delhi-NCR air pollution: Corporate offices adopt work-from-home measures | Business TodayUK Pharmacy Workforce on the Brink: Community Pharmacy England’s 2025 survey reveals 70% of pharmacy staff report negative mental health impacts, with one in four barely coping. Over 60% of pharmacies face staff shortages, 21% have been forced to close temporarily, and 95% cite increased workload pressure, raising serious concerns about patient care sustainability and service continuity in essential healthcare infrastructure.
Community pharmacies face ‘unsustainable’ pressure, staff morale low | Pharmacy BusinessFormer Pilot Warns AI Could Complicate Crisis Response: Captain Richard Champion de Crespigny, who saved 469 people during Qantas Flight 32’s catastrophic engine failure in 2010, warns that increasing AI and automation reliance could make flying harder during emergencies. He argues that when automated systems fail, pilots must identify malfunctioning computers and manually fly the aircraft, a skill set that risks atrophy as automation increases, particularly in high-pressure crisis scenarios where human judgement proves irreplaceable.
Retired airline pilot saved over 400 lives after an engine explosion midair | Business InsiderFirst Human Case of H5N5 Bird Flu Detected in Washington State: An older adult in Grays Harbor County, Washington, has become the first known human case of H5N5 avian influenza, a strain previously detected only in animals. The individual, who keeps backyard poultry exposed to wild birds, was hospitalised in early November. While health officials report no evidence of human-to-human transmission and the CDC maintains low public risk, this marks the first U.S. bird flu case since February and adds to concerns about viral mutations in domestic and wild bird populations.
Washington resident is infected with a different type of bird flu | AP News
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