No rash decisions | Weeks of 10 - 24 Feb, '25
Threat concerns this week: Empty shelves in UK. 2.7b records lost. Significant measles outbreak.
Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between February 10th, and February 24th, 2025…
Societal | A significant measles outbreak is unfolding in the United States, with Texas at its epicenter. As of February 21, 2025, Texas has reported 90 cases, primarily in Gaines County, marking the state's most severe outbreak in nearly three decades. The majority of those affected are unvaccinated children under 17, with 16 hospitalizations reported. Neighbouring New Mexico has also identified nine cases in Lea County, likely linked to the Texas outbreak. Health officials are conducting contact tracing and offering free vaccinations to curb the spread. The escalation is attributed to declining vaccination rates, particularly in close-knit communities with high vaccine exemption rates, such as the Mennonite population in Gaines County. This decline in immunization, coupled with increased global measles activity, has heightened the risk of outbreaks in under-vaccinated U.S. communities. We dive into this story below offering some considerations for similar outbreaks in your part of the world.
Technological | Security researcher Jeremiah Fowler uncovered a massive 1.17TB unsecured database linked to Chinese IoT company Mars Hydro, exposing 2.7 billion sensitive records, including over 100 million Wi-Fi network names and passwords, IP addresses, and device IDs. While the company downplays responsibility, this breach highlights a bigger issue: IoT devices like smart bulbs, speakers, and cameras often ship with weak security and default passwords that users rarely change, leaving networks wide open for cybercriminals. To protect yourself, disable remote access features (often labelled as "Cloud Control" or "External Access") and, if possible, move IoT devices to a guest network - a quick fix that limits their access to your main connection and reduces the risk of attacks. As more device at home and at work continue to be connect to the internet by default, the risks of major data breaches continue.
Economic | The United Kingdom is confronting a severe food supply crisis, with supermarket shelves increasingly bare and prices soaring. Staples like butter, broccoli, and orange juice have become scarce or prohibitively expensive. Over the past three years, food prices have surged by approximately 26%, with 13.6% of households experiencing food insecurity as of June 2024. Contributing factors include extreme weather conditions leading to poor harvests, labour shortages exacerbated by Brexit, and global supply chain disruptions. Experts warn that without immediate intervention, the nation could experience prolonged food insecurity, affecting both consumers and businesses reliant on consistent food supplies.
The crisis extends beyond the UK's borders, impacting international businesses connected to British markets. Companies exporting food products to the UK may face decreased demand due to rising prices and consumer cutbacks. Conversely, businesses importing from the UK could encounter supply shortages, leading to increased costs and the need to source alternatives. The interconnected nature of global supply chains means that disruptions in one region can have cascading effects worldwide, underscoring the importance for businesses to assess their dependencies and develop contingency plans to mitigate these risks. Source
Our thoughts
It’s been hard to stay away from any story that isn’t geopolitical, involving Trump, Musk, or the countless (should I say, needless) wars around the globe. But there are other smouldering events catching fire. The food shortage in the UK appears to be a long-tail consequence of significant geopolitical and economic decisions, Brexit being a prime example. This should serve as a reminder of how large-scale decisions can affect us for years to come. Tariffs, wars, and political tensions can, and will, have impacts that last for decades.
Jeremiah Fowler’s discovery of 1.17TB of unsecured data linked to the Chinese IoT company Mars Hydro is deeply concerning, though stories like these are becoming disturbingly routine. This news follows closely on the heels of Bybit’s recent breach, now being labelled the largest crypto hack in history. A hacker stole approximately $1.5 billion in Ethereum and staked Ethereum from Bybit’s offline wallet. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou confirmed that the hacker manipulated a planned transfer, gaining control of the exchange’s cold wallet and redirecting funds to an unknown address. The theft accounted for about nine percent of Bybit’s assets; however, the exchange has secured 80 percent of the required funding to cover the loss through partner bridge loans. These kinds of numbers should do nothing less than remind you to continuously strengthen your cyber resilience.
Finally, the measles outbreak in the U.S. is cause for concern - not just because of its devastating effect on children, but because it coincides with a period of significant political unrest. With figures like RFK Jr., notorious for his anti-vaccine rhetoric, gaining attention, people need to take mitigation and protection into their own hands. We learned a lot from COVID; let’s not repeat the same mistakes we made back then.
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Measles surge unveils public health gaps
Category: Societal
Review our report’s terminology here ↗
In summary: The United States is confronting its most severe measles outbreak in nearly three decades, with Texas and New Mexico reporting a combined total of 99 confirmed cases as of February 21, 2025. Gaines County, Texas, has emerged as the epicenter, accounting for 57 cases, primarily among unvaccinated children aged 5 to 17. Health officials have noted that 16 patients have required hospitalization, underscoring the outbreak's severity. The rapid spread is largely attributed to low vaccination rates in close-knit communities; notably, nearly 18% of kindergarteners in Gaines County have vaccine exemptions, significantly higher than the state average. This situation is further complicated by the recent appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine critic, as Secretary of Health and Human Services, raising concerns about potential impacts on public health policies.
For businesses, especially those that rely on in-person interactions, travel, or operate in high-traffic spaces, this outbreak signals a rising operational risk. Workforces could face absenteeism spikes, supply chains could be strained by regional lockdowns or health restrictions, and companies with international ties might encounter disruptions if travel advisories escalate. Our recommendation is to review employee health policies, ensure proper vaccination protocols are in place, and update contingency plans for localized outbreaks to safeguard both your workforce and business operations.
Sources:
Measles Outbreak– Feb. 21, 2025 | Texas Health and Human Services
Measles Sicken Nearly 100 in Texas and New Mexico | Wall Street Journal
Record-breaking measles outbreak plagues western Texas as cases spread to New Mexico | NY Post
The Guardian | Texas measles outbreak grows to 90 cases, worst level in 30 years
You should be concerned if…
You operate in public-facing industries like retail, hospitality, or education, where exposure risk is significantly higher.
Your business involves frequent domestic or international travel, especially to areas with active outbreaks.
You run large-scale events, conferences, or gatherings, where measles can spread quickly through close contact.
You manage healthcare facilities or offer services in settings where vulnerable populations (infants, elderly, immunocompromised) are present.
Your company relies on temporary or shift-based workforces, which can increase the likelihood of community spread.
These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.
Disruption Risk
Disease or Pandemic
High levels of absenteeism or workforce illness affecting productivity
Revenue losses due to decreased demand or operational slowdown
Delays or inability to receive essential goods or services
Preventative actions
Enforce vaccination policies
Verify immunization records for employees, especially in high-risk sectors or roles involving public contact.
Review sick leave policies
Ensure employees can take time off when ill without financial penalties, reducing the risk of infected individuals coming to work.
Limit non-essential travel
Temporarily restrict business trips to outbreak zones or offer virtual alternatives for meetings and conferences.
Improve workplace hygiene
Increase sanitation efforts in shared spaces and provide hand sanitizers, particularly in high-traffic areas.
Stay informed
Regularly monitor updates from health authorities like the CDC and implement recommended measures promptly.
Need support?
At Fixinc, we are passionate about helping people get through disasters. That’s why our team of Advisors bring you this resource free of charge. If you need help understanding these threats and building a plan against them, the same Advisors are here to help over a 30-minute online call. Once complete, if you like what was provided, you can choose to provide a donation or subscribe to Unreasonable Ventures to support this channel.
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