Sick and tired | Weeks of 18 Dec '24 - 6 Jan, '25

Threat concerns this week: HMPV virus out of China. Heighten security in US. Night drones.

Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between December 18th 2024, and January 6th, 2025…

1. Societal | Northern China is facing a significant rise in human metapneumovirus (HMPV) infections, with children under 14 being the most affected. HMPV, a respiratory virus causing flu-like symptoms, can escalate to severe conditions like bronchitis and pneumonia, particularly in young children and the elderly. With no specific vaccine or antiviral treatment available, care focuses on managing symptoms. While Chinese authorities insist the surge aligns with seasonal trends and remains under control, reports of overcrowded hospitals and heightened crematorium activity are sparking public concern. In response to growing unease, China has begun trialling a pneumonia monitoring system aimed at identifying unknown origins of severe infections. Whether this measure will ease public fears or uncover deeper issues remains to be seen, but for now, the focus is on containment and symptom management as cases continue to climb. More on this below.
   
   In a similar story, the US has just confirmed the first human death from avian bird flu. We will review this update and provide additional resource on it when appropriate.

2. Societal | In early January, the United States heightened security measures following two significant incidents: a deadly truck attack in New Orleans and an explosion outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas. The New Orleans attack, carried out by Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a U.S. Army veteran who had pledged allegiance to Islamic State, resulted in 15 fatalities. The Las Vegas incident involved a Tesla Cybertruck explosion, causing injuries but no fatalities. Authorities are investigating potential links between the two events, though no definitive connection has been established.
   
   In response to these events, cities across the nation, including New York and Charlotte, have increased security, especially with upcoming significant public gatherings such as the state funeral for former President Jimmy Carter and President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. The U.S. Secret Service is overseeing security for the presidential election certification on January 6, designated as a National Special Security Event. In New Orleans, enhanced security measures were evident during the Sugar Bowl, which proceeded with heightened police presence and a moment of silence for the attack victims.

3. Societal & Geopolitical | Since 18 November 2024, numerous drone sightings have been reported over New Jersey and other northeastern U.S. states, causing public concern. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) responded by imposing temporary flight restrictions over 22 New Jersey cities, including Bedminster and Picatinny, effective until 17 January. Sightings have also occurred near sensitive locations such as the Picatinny Arsenal and President-elect Donald Trump's golf course in Bedminster. Similar reports have emerged from New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio.
   
   Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas confirmed that the sightings involve both drones and manned aircraft often mistaken for drones, stating there is no evidence of foreign involvement or threats to national security. Despite this, some lawmakers have criticized the government's handling of the situation and the lack of public information, leading to various conspiracy theories. The FAA has warned that unsafe or dangerous drone operations could result in fines up to $75,000 and revocation of drone pilot certificates. Whether this is just an innocent mistake or reason for concern, it raises questions around communication and vulnerabilities to our airspace.

Our thoughts

We arrive back to a new year with plenty to discuss. It seems like yesterday we were talking about Trump’s election victory, which was slowly overshadowed by the mystery drone sightings across America. There have also been multiple devastating plane crashes, a large (but expected) number of cyber attacks on government departments, and the UN reporting on dozens of civilian deaths, including women and children, in Afghanistan by Pakistan’s military forces - which has raised international alarm.

China’s HMPV news is nothing to sleep on. But it’s likely the media is blowing this out as much as it can. So, it’s important to take these assumptions with a grain of salt and facts from credible sources. However, if this is legitimate, it is simply unacceptable to not be prepared for another pandemic. As with any emerging threat like this, use it as an excuse to check where you are. With the United State’s recently confirming the first human death by avian bird flu, pandemics remain a high risk to us all.

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Played down: A surge in human metapneumovirus (HMPV) infections in China

Category: Societal

Review our report’s terminology here ↗

In summary: HMPV infections remain concentrated in specific regions of northern China, but as we saw with COVID-19, the ripple effects could extend far beyond national borders. History has shown us how localized outbreaks can cascade into impacts on supply chains, workforce availability, and public confidence. The parallels of COVID are hard to ignore. Businesses worldwide, particularly those with dependencies on Chinese manufacturing, logistics, or talent pools, should view this as a potential early warning rather than isolated noise. And even if it is just media hype, early preparation wouldn’t hurt. As we've seen before, even modest outbreaks can lead to workforce shortages, port delays, and manufacturing slowdowns, triggering ripple effects across global industries.

Preventative measures for businesses extend beyond health protocols. Companies should revisit their business continuity plans, ensuring they account for regional disruptions in China and potential knock-on effects in their own operations. We often see BC Plans from the 2020 pandemic still in use today. But this makes them out of date. Industries such as pharmaceuticals, logistics, education, and tourism should brace for heightened demand, regulatory shifts, or changes in customer behaviour. On an individual level, prioritizing hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, surface sanitation, and staying informed through credible sources remain essential steps. While there’s no immediate cause for panic, preparation is key. Proactive businesses and resilient systems are often those that spot patterns early and take decisive action before a threat scales.

Sources:

• Independent | What is HMPV? China steps up monitoring amid new virus outbreak | Published on 06-01-2025

• The Times | What is HMPV? Virus outbreak in China raises alarm | Published on 01-04-2025

• Reuters | China steps up monitoring of emerging respiratory diseases | Published on 28-12-2024

• NDTV | China Calls HMPV Outbreak 'Winter Occurrence', India Says 'Don't Panic' | Published on 04-01-2025

You should be concerned if…

• Healthcare Industry: Hospitals and clinics are experiencing a surge in patients with respiratory symptoms, leading to increased demand for medical services and potential strain on healthcare resources. Despite efforts off the back of COVID-19’s lessons, many hospitals around the world remain ill-equipped to handle additional surges in patients.

• Pharmaceutical Industry: With no specific treatment for HMPV, there may be a heightened demand for over-the-counter medications that alleviate respiratory symptoms, as well as increased interest in developing antiviral treatments or vaccines.

• Travel and Tourism Industry: Concerns about the spread of HMPV could lead to travel advisories or restrictions, impacting international and domestic travel. The global tourism sector, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, remains vulnerable to disruptions from public health crises.

• Education Sector: Schools and daycare centres may face challenges if the virus spreads among children, potentially leading to increased absenteeism or temporary closures to prevent transmission. The domino effect of many parents working from home to look after children may have an impact on businesses not suited to hybrid work arrangements.

• Manufacturing and Supply Chain: If the outbreak leads to workforce shortages due to illness or care-giving responsibilities, manufacturing operations and supply chains could experience disruptions.

While the situation is currently under control and consistent with seasonal trends, these industries should monitor developments closely and prepare contingency plans to mitigate potential impacts.

These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.

Preventative actions

Preventing the spread of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) involves adopting general respiratory infection control measures, as there is currently no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for HMPV. Here are some recommended preventative actions:

Hand Hygiene

• Wash your hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially before touching your face, before eating, after using the toilet, and after coughing or sneezing. If soap and water are unavailable, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer. Resource: Centre for Health Protection

Respiratory Etiquette

• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your elbow when coughing or sneezing. Dispose of used tissues immediately into a lidded rubbish bin, and wash your hands thoroughly afterward. Resource: Centre for Health Protection

Avoid Close Contact

• Stay away from individuals exhibiting respiratory symptoms, and if you're feeling unwell, refrain from close contact with others to prevent transmission. Resource: Pasadena Unified School District

Clean and Disinfect Surfaces

• Regularly clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces, such as doorknobs, light switches, and mobile devices, to reduce the risk of virus transmission. Resource: Pasadena Unified School District

Use of Masks

• When respiratory virus activity is high, wearing a surgical mask in public places, especially in crowded settings or while using public transportation, can help reduce the spread of infections. Ensure proper mask usage, including hand hygiene before putting on and after removing the mask. Resource: Centre for Health Protection

Stay Home When Sick

• If you experience respiratory symptoms, stay home from work or school, avoid crowded places, and seek medical advice promptly. Resource: Centre for Health Protection

Maintain Overall Health

• Support your immune system by maintaining a balanced diet, engaging in regular exercise, getting adequate rest, avoiding smoking, and limiting alcohol consumption. Resource: Centre for Health Protection

Implementing these preventative measures can help reduce the risk of HMPV infection and other respiratory illnesses.

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