They have no right being this resilient
So how do they do it against all the odds?
The London black cab belongs to that curious set of objects with the remarkable ability to immediately situate you in a place - ICON Eye
It has no theoretical right to be as successful as it has been. It has faced unparalleled industry disruption, competition funded by the wealthiest investors on Earth, and operating costs that soar beyond sustainable limits. Pandemics, taxes, and oil price fluctuations have further tested its endurance. It has an onboarding process that isn’t guaranteed, takes years to complete, and is unpaid. Yet, it has remained resilient beyond imagination, an institution in its own right and a core symbol of the world’s 36th largest metropolitan area.
If a seasoned risk professional had analyzed its compounding future threats in 1897 (when the first petrol-powered “cab off the rank” hit the streets of London), she might have predicted its demise no later than the mid-20th century. After all, few industries can claim faultlessness in their original conceptual design and purpose for nearly 127 years. Understanding this extraordinary example of resilience could offer guidance on how we, too, can overcome our own adversities. And like so many systems and processes we tackle, for the London black cab, it always comes back to first principles.
Existential threats
We are emotional animals. We tend to draw from the past to influence what we imagine for the future. Anxieties run wild as we envision a leader's rise to dictatorship, ignoring the rare sequence of events required to make it happen. Or how rarely we remain logical during a significant crisis. Because of this, our businesses are like our dogs—a mirror of our emotions.
For eight decades, London’s black cab industry has faced numerous challenges threatening its survival head-on. Its seen world wars, Kings and Queens, and Olympic games come and go. The rise of unlicensed minicabs in the 1960s and the advent of ride-hailing apps in the 2010s, created by the Broligarchs of Silicon Valley, introduced fierce competition. Yet, it remained calm. Where Uber’s price surges left a sour taste in commuters’ mouths, the black cab’s cash and card offering provided the nostalgia of yesteryear’s good times.
Economic pressures such as fluctuating fuel prices, increasing licensing fees, and congestion charges further strained drivers’ livelihoods and the very fabric of what made this service so special - so integral to London. Technological advancements like GPS seemed to diminish the value of "The Knowledge." Environmental regulations mandated the adoption of low-emission or electric vehicles, creating additional financial burdens. Public health crises, most notably the pandemic, drastically reduced passenger numbers, while legal disputes over ride-hailing licensing added further uncertainty.
That oddly shaped little black taxi has been through a lot. But they’re still there, I’ve seen them. They continue to persist, chugging along at no impressive pace but adhering to their unqiue first principles. The black cab has adapted, remained humble, and leveraged its iconic status to survive.
Validation
Talking of status, this isn’t given—it’s earned. Just like “The Knowledge.” This rigorous and legendary test is one that all prospective London black cab drivers must pass to earn their license. Introduced in 1865, it demands that candidates memorize over 25,000 streets and 100,000 landmarks within a six-mile radius of Charing Cross, covering every potential route and point of interest in one of the most complex urban layouts in the world. The process often takes three to four years of study, during which candidates traverse London on mopeds to master its geography, testing their recall and spatial understanding. Rote memorization (the process of learning information through repetition) combines with the requirement to think dynamically, calculating the fastest and most efficient routes while adhering to traffic regulations and possible congestion.
Examinations involve grueling, one-on-one "appearances" before examiners, where candidates must describe, in precise detail, the shortest route between any two points without the aid of maps or technology. This extraordinary test has become a symbol of dedication and expertise, setting London cab drivers apart with a level of knowledge and professionalism that remains unparalleled. Few industries - no, few professionals - can showcase such dedication.
Most first-time tourists don’t know this, though. It only becomes evident after requesting an address and having your Cockney chauffeur oblige without the need for maps. Tourists often choose London’s black cabs for their reliability, safety, and cultural authenticity. Heavily regulated by Transport for London (TfL), black cabs offer peace of mind with vetted drivers, transparent fares via meters, and strict codes of conduct. They’re hailed without pre-booking, making them crisis-proof for those without internet access or local apps. A black cab will always do business during a cyberattack. They are raw, analogue machines.
Financial & reputational impacts
Then there is the ‘brand’ of the cab. Its reputation, if you will.
Heavily used in the marketing world as a reference to infinite branding, there are dozens of additional industries that can take inspiration from the story of the London black cab. It was highlighted in Transport for London's "Transported by Design" campaign, where it was voted one of London's top transport design icons. While the NYC yellow cab evolved from the passenger-friendly Checker Marathon to the environmentally sustainable (but incredibly bland) Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, the London Austin FX4 has become arguably the most recognisable vehicle on Earth.
This brand recognition, alongside the impressive memory and professionalism of its drivers, may contribute to its enduring success and consistent business from London commuters. In other words, it boasts remarkable brand reputation and trust in the market—key advantages during times of market volatility.
But things are getting tough for our little gas guzzler.
The threat landscape
109,000 taxi journeys are completed each day in London, down from 185,000 in 2009. The pandemic hit the industry hard, with a loss of 18,961 rides in March 2020 alone.
Black cabs face a wave of technology-backed competitors: Uber, Bolt, Private Hire Vehicles, minicabs, and even e-bikes all pose daily threats to their market share. Many commuters and politicians are demanding cleaner modes of transport in areas prone to smog. While the cab has begun its transition to electric vehicles (EVs), it’s unlikely to change its core purpose; the reason people confidently hail one, rain or shine.
A London black cab driver makes no sense. Why not just join Uber and save three years? A London black cab makes no sense. The Tube avoids traffic, and so does an e-bike. The vehicles themselves aren’t great for long distances. Yet, the black cab prevails, thanks to its basic, first-principles design and purpose. It does what it does really well—and not much more. Amusingly, this simplicity makes it resilient to many, many threats. And maybe that’s the lesson here, simplicity in times of complexity?
Long live the black cab.