Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top emerging risks between November 17th, and December 1st, 2025…
Review our report’s terminology here ↗
Our main risk this fortnight is…
1. Economic: The UN Global Risk Report 2024
The United Nations has released its inaugural Global Risk Report, surveying 1,111 experts across 136 countries on the most critical threats facing humanity.
Global preparedness scores just 4.3 out of 7, with the world particularly under-prepared for cybersecurity breakdown, AI-related harms, mis- and disinformation, and climate inaction.
Mis- and disinformation emerged as the top “Global Vulnerability,” a risk that is both critically important and severely under-prepared for, with over 80% of respondents saying it is already occurring.
Geopolitical tensions ranked as the single most interconnected risk, acting as a multiplier that amplifies economic fragmentation, conflict, inequality, and supply chain disruption.
The report presents four possible futures (Breakdown, Status Quo, Progress, Breakthrough) and emphasises that multi-government cooperation is the most effective path to resilience.
Sources
You should be concerned if…
You operate in globally connected supply chains: The UN report identifies geopolitical tensions as the most interconnected risk in the global system. Disruption in one region can cascade rapidly through trade relationships, supplier networks, and logistics corridors. Organisations with cross-border dependencies face compounding vulnerabilities when multiple risks materialise simultaneously.
Your business model depends on stable governance or predictable regulation: Political instability, erosion of multilateral institutions, and societal polarisation are accelerating across regions. Companies relying on consistent regulatory frameworks, government contracts, or public sector partnerships should anticipate increased volatility and longer decision-making cycles.
You work in sectors vulnerable to information integrity risks: Healthcare, finance, critical infrastructure, and any industry where public trust is essential face growing exposure to mis- and disinformation. The report identifies this as the risk where the gap between importance and preparedness is widest. Organisations in these sectors need robust verification processes and crisis communication plans.
Your organisation has not mapped risk interdependencies: Traditional risk assessments treat threats in silos. The UN report makes clear that risks amplify each other. A geopolitical disruption affects supply chains, which affects financial stability, which affects talent retention. Organisations without a systemic view of how their risks connect are likely to be blindsided by cascading failures.
These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.
Preventative actions
Map your risk interdependencies
Move beyond siloed risk registers. Conduct scenario planning that traces how a disruption in one area (geopolitical, environmental, technological) could cascade into operational, financial, and reputational impacts across your organisation.
Invest in information integrity
Implement verification processes for critical business intelligence. Consider media literacy training for leadership teams. Develop crisis communication protocols that specifically account for operating in a misinformation-rich environment.
Strengthen coalition relationships
The UN report is unambiguous that individual actors cannot address systemic risks alone. Identify your key stakeholders across government, industry associations, and civil society. Build those relationships now, not during a crisis when everyone is competing for attention.
Stress-test for compound scenarios
Design tabletop exercises that combine multiple risk categories. What happens if a cyber incident coincides with a supply chain disruption and a reputational crisis? Organisations that have rehearsed compound scenarios recover faster than those encountering them for the first time.
2. Environmental: Food Companies Reframe Net-Zero Around Resilience
Major food and beverage companies are revising or abandoning net-zero targets set after COP26, acknowledging that commitments were made without clear delivery pathways, particularly for Scope 3 value chain emissions.
Diageo has pushed back its net-zero target from 2030 to 2040 for direct operations, and to 2050 for full value chain emissions. PepsiCo similarly extended its timeline from 2040 to 2050.
Climate disruption is already affecting operations. Severe droughts in Spain and Greece devastated olive harvests in 2023, creating immediate sourcing crises for manufacturers like The Compleat Food Group.
The industry is reframing climate action from a marketing-driven compliance exercise to a strategic resilience imperative, with companies like Greencore increasing sourcing from UK hydroponic farms for supply stability.
Anonymous industry whistleblowers warned in April 2025 that corporate risks are still not being treated as critical to strategy, and mitigation measures remain insufficient for the scale of threat.
Sources
An update on Diageo’s sustainability goals to build climate resilience | Diageo | August 2025
Diageo revises emissions targets | Just Drinks | August 2025
The Road to Net Zero: Big Food’s Emission Pledges | Just Food | May 2025
You should be concerned if…
Your business depends on agricultural supply chains: Climate disruption is no longer a future scenario. Droughts, floods, and extreme weather events are already affecting crop yields and commodity availability. If your procurement strategy assumes consistent sourcing from established regions, that assumption is increasingly unreliable.
Your sustainability commitments are disconnected from core operations: Companies whose sustainability teams operate in isolation from procurement, finance, and risk functions are vulnerable to the same credibility challenges now facing major food brands. Targets set without delivery pathways will eventually require public revision.
You source from climate-vulnerable regions: Mediterranean agriculture, Southeast Asian production, and other regions facing acute climate stress present growing supply risk. Organisations without diversification strategies or long-term supplier partnerships may face sudden sourcing crises as extreme weather events intensify.
Your Scope 3 emissions represent the majority of your footprint: For most food and consumer goods companies, value chain emissions account for 90% or more of total carbon impact. These are also the hardest to measure and reduce. If your net-zero strategy lacks a credible pathway for Scope 3, it may require the same re-calibration now underway across the sector.
Preventative actions
Audit supply chain climate exposure
Map not just your direct suppliers, but where their raw materials originate. Assess which regions face elevated risk from drought, flooding, or other climate impacts. Identify single points of failure and develop contingency sourcing arrangements.
Connect sustainability to procurement and finance
Ensure your sustainability function has a seat at the table with commercial decision-makers. Climate risk is business risk. Targets that exist only in sustainability reports, disconnected from capital allocation and supplier negotiations, will not survive operational pressures.
Shift from distant targets to near-term resilience
A 2050 net-zero commitment matters less than demonstrable progress on supply chain stability, energy efficiency, and waste reduction today. Consider whether your current commitments are credible and achievable, or whether honest re-calibration would strengthen stakeholder trust.
Explore longer-term supplier relationships
Move from transactional procurement to partnership models. Companies working with suppliers on sustainable farming practices, water management, and climate adaptation are building resilience that benefits both parties. Short-term cost optimisation may create long-term vulnerability.
Quick snippet stories
TSMC Arizona Fab Halted by Supplier Power Outage
TSMC confirmed that a power outage at Fab 21 in Arizona forced production to stop for several hours in late September. The disruption originated not at the fab itself, but at Linde, an industrial gas supplier. When Linde lost power, delivery of essential gases ceased, and TSMC had to scrap wafers in production. The exact losses remain undisclosed. TSMC says it is working to address this supplier dependency for future production phases.
TSMC confirms September power outage at Fab 21 in Arizona | Tom’s Hardware | November 2025
Ransomware Attacks Continue to Target Holidays and Weekends
New research from Semperis found that 52% of ransomware attacks occur on holidays or weekends when cybersecurity staffing is reduced. In Australia and New Zealand, 85% of organisations with in-house security operations centres reduce staffing by 50% or more during these periods. The study also found that 81% of attacks in the region followed material corporate events such as mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, or layoffs.
Indian Firms Rank AI and Climate as Top Future Risks
An Aon survey of nearly 3,000 risk managers and C-suite executives found Indian firms rank cyber attacks and data breaches as their top current business risk, with AI and climate change identified as the major threats by 2028. The survey revealed significant losses already occurring, with 78% of respondents reporting losses from property damage, 64% from exchange rate fluctuations, and 46% from business interruption.
Ethiopian Volcano Eruption Disrupts Aviation Across India
Ethiopia’s Hayli Gubbi volcano erupted on November 23rd for the first time in approximately 12,000 years. The eruption sent an ash column up to 45,000 feet into the atmosphere, with the plume drifting eastward across the Red Sea, the Arabian Peninsula, and into India. Air India cancelled over a dozen flights, while IndiGo and Akasa Air suspended Middle East routes. The ash affected visibility and air quality across Northern India before dispersing.
Ethiopian volcano erupts after 12,000 years: What we know | Al Jazeera | November 2025
Optus Suffers Another Emergency Services Outage
Australia’s second-largest telecommunications provider experienced another service disruption affecting over 14,000 customers in Melbourne’s southeast. The company identified physical infrastructure damage, with evidence of aerial fibre being cut and copper removed. This is the fourth major Optus outage impacting Triple Zero emergency services in recent months, following a September incident linked to at least four deaths. The pattern highlights the vulnerability of privatised essential services.
Optus says vandals cutting fibre behind latest major outage | SBS News | November 2025
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