Antonio Gramsci wrote his infamous words in 1929, imprisoned under Mussolini’s fascist regime. Nearly a century later, they capture 2026 with uncomfortable precision.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, now in its 21st edition, confirms what many have sensed: we have entered an age of competition. Cooperation is giving way to confrontation. Trust, the currency of collective action, is losing value. And the institutions that once underpinned global stability are under siege.
This article and supporting podcast summarizes the report’s key findings for risk professionals, executives, and board members. Read time: 90 seconds.
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The Outlook: Turbulent to Stormy
The WEF surveyed over 1,300 experts from business, government, academia, and civil society. Here is what they expect:
50% anticipate a turbulent or stormy global outlook over the next two years (up 14 percentage points from last year).
57% expect the same over the next decade.
Only 1% anticipate calm.
This marks a significant tonal shift. Previous editions described multilateralism as “under pressure.” This year’s language is starker: cooperation is “crumbling,” and trust is “losing its value.”
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney reinforced this at Davos just days after the report’s release:
“The multilateral institutions on which middle powers have relied, the WTO, the UN, the COP, the very architecture of collective problem-solving, are under threat.”
(Source: Global Risks Report 2026, Chapter 1, Figure 1, p.7 | PM Carney’s Davos Address, January 20, 2026)
Top 10 Risks for 2026
The immediate-term risk landscape is dominated by geopolitical and economic concerns:
Geo-economic confrontation (18% of respondents). Up 8 positions from last year.
State-based armed conflict (14%)
Extreme weather events (8%). Down from #2.
Societal polarization (7%)
Misinformation and disinformation (7%)
Economic downturn (5%). Up 8 positions.
Erosion of human rights and civic freedoms (4%)
Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (4%). New entrant in top 10.
Cyber insecurity (3%). New entrant in top 10.
Inequality (3%)
Economic risks showed the largest collective increase in ranking. Both economic downturn and inflation jumped 8 positions. The risk of an asset bubble burst rose 7 places.
(Source: Global Risks Report 2026, Chapter 1, Figure 11, p.15)
The 10-Year Horizon: Environmental Risks Return
Over the next decade, environmental risks reclaim the top positions:
Extreme weather events
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Critical change to Earth systems
Misinformation and disinformation
Adverse outcomes of AI technologies. The sharpest climb of any risk, rising from #30 in the short-term to #5 over the decade.
This gap between short-term and long-term priorities reveals a pattern: the world is in reactive mode. When immediate crises dominate attention (wars, economic instability, AI disruption), longer-term risks get deprioritised. The problem is those risks do not wait. They compound.
Short-termism is itself a risk. Environmental threats are less “visual and confronting” than a trade war or an AI headline, but they remain the most severe over the decade. Ignoring them now accelerates the cost later.
(Source: Global Risks Report 2026, Chapter 1, Figure 6, p.10)
Five Themes Worth Understanding
The report’s second chapter explores six in-depth themes. Here are five relevant to business leaders:
Multipolarity without multilateralism
Countries are going it alone. Global cooperation is breaking down, and no one is stepping up to fill the gap.
Values at war
Ideological divides are deepening. Technology, especially social media and AI, is amplifying divisions rather than bridging them.
An economic reckoning
Debt is piling up. Asset bubbles may be forming. The gap between those doing well and those struggling is widening.
Infrastructure endangered
Aging systems are under pressure from climate stress and under-investment. Supply chains remain vulnerable to disruption.
AI at large
AI is moving fast. Jobs are at risk. Autonomous systems, including in defense, are raising questions about control and accountability.
For APAC and ASEAN audiences, these themes carry particular weight. The region is deeply integrated into global supply chains, exposed to US-China tensions, and disproportionately vulnerable to extreme weather and sea-level rise. Carney’s observation that “middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu” resonates strongly for Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, and others navigating this landscape.
(Source: Global Risks Report 2026, Chapter 2)
You Should Be Concerned If...
Your supply chain relies on geopolitically sensitive regions or single points of failure.
Geo-economic confrontation is now the #1 risk. Trade weaponisation and supply chain leverage are accelerating.
Your business model depends on stable trade policy or cross-border data flows.
Multilateral frameworks are weakening. Expect more friction, not less.
You operate critical infrastructure or rely heavily on it.
Aging systems, climate stress, and under-investment create compounding vulnerabilities.
You have not stress-tested for economic downturn scenarios in three or more years.
Economic risks are climbing fast. Debt, inflation, and asset bubble concerns are real.
You lack a position on AI governance or cyber resilience.
AI and cyber risks are now in the top 10. Boards and leadership teams need clarity on both.
Preventative Actions
Review and diversify supply chain dependencies.
Map exposure to high-risk regions and identify alternative sourcing options.
Update crisis management and business continuity plans.
Include geopolitical scenarios, not just natural disasters or IT failures.
Conduct a cyber resilience assessment.
Pay particular attention to AI-adjacent vulnerabilities and third-party risk.
Scenario-plan for economic volatility.
Model inflation persistence, asset volatility, or credit tightening.
Engage leadership on AI policy.
Internal governance and external regulatory readiness should be on the board agenda.
If you are unsure where to start, seek a second opinion from an advisory with cross-disciplinary expertise. The risks are interconnected. Your response should be too.
Be the 1%
Only 1% of experts surveyed expect calm. So what do they know?
They have prepared. They have stress-tested. They have diversified. They have accepted uncertainty as a constant and built systems to manage it.
The future is not fixed. The WEF makes that clear. But if you are stuck in reactive mode, responding to crisis after crisis without building capacity to anticipate what comes next, you are not shaping the future. You are being shaped by it.
Be the 1% in 2026.
Sources
The Global Risks Report 2026 | World Economic Forum | January 2026
Davos 2026: Special Address by Mark Carney, PM of Canada | World Economic Forum | January 20, 2026
Read the Full Transcript of Carney’s Speech | CBC News | January 20, 2026
Global Risks Report 2026: Top Risks in an ‘Age of Disorder’ | World Economic Forum | January 2026
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