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Mineral monopoly | Risk Updates for Weeks of 7 - 21 Apr '25
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Mineral monopoly | Risk Updates for Weeks of 7 - 21 Apr '25

Threat concerns this week: AI phishing emails. Your data during liquidation. China's mineral stockpile.

Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between April 7th and April 21st, 2025…

Review our report’s terminology here ↗

1. Geopolitical & Economic: China’s mineral grip tightens on global supply chains.

China controls 70% of rare earth mining and 85% of processing globally. With new export restrictions in place, they’re signalling that minerals essential to EVs, wind turbines, and electronics can - and will - be used as a political weapon.

The move mirrors the old U.S.–China trade wars but this time it’s not about tariffs. It’s about minerals that power clean tech, defence, and digital infrastructure, and China holds the key.

Why this matters:

Without access to rare earths, innovation stalls. Prices rise. Supply chains collapse. Entire industries become vulnerable to geopolitics instead of market forces.

What to do now:

  • Identify your supply chain exposure to rare earths.

  • Evaluate alternatives or redesigns to reduce rare earth dependency.

  • Monitor trade regulations from China, Vietnam, Australia, and Brazil.

  • Discuss contingency plans with key vendors and manufacturers.

Sources

You should be concerned if…

  • EV and battery manufacturers: Core materials like neodymium and dysprosium are at risk of delayed or restricted access.

  • Defence and aerospace contractors: Guidance systems, sensors, and engines depend on rare earths.

  • Electronics and consumer tech: Supply issues could affect everything from smartphones to smart TVs.

  • Green energy operators: Wind turbines and solar infrastructure use rare earth-based components.

  • Governments and regulators: Strategic reserves and policy reform are now critical for national resilience.

These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.

Preventative actions

  • Stockpile strategic materials where possible.

  • Support R&D into rare-earth-free alternatives.

  • Collaborate with domestic or allied processing initiatives.

  • Recycle e-waste and batteries for mineral recovery.

2. Technological: AI is now powering high-quality phishing emails at scale.

Researchers found that over 80,000 phishing emails were generated using ChatGPT and similar tools. The emails were articulate, polished, and bypassed most spam filters, because they were written like a human, by AI.

No hacking. No bypassing security walls. Just pure misuse of open-access tools.

Why this matters:

Phishing is no longer riddled with typos and sketchy links. AI has raised the game, and anyone can launch convincing, low-effort attacks in seconds.

Sources

3. Technological: Your data clears debt during a liquidation.

23andMe filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but the real issue is what happens to the 15 million DNA profiles it collected. Under U.S. law, that data can be auctioned off to pay creditors.

At the same time, UniSuper and Australian Retirement Trust were hit by quiet, targeted cyberattacks. Not for cash, but for identity data.

Why this matters:

User data—whether genetic, personal, or financial—is now a tradeable asset in both cybercrime and corporate liquidation. If you store sensitive data, or use services that do, this is your wake-up call.

Sources

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